Eagle Bulk Shipping Inc. - Earnings Estimate For 2011 Q4

For the quarter ended December 31st, 2011, we estimate that Eagle Bulk Shipping Inc. (NASDAQ: EGLE) generated basic loss per common share of ($0.05) on net loss of ($3,200,000).

We estimate that the company’s fleet of 45 owned-vessels generated net TCE Revenues of $59,900,000 for an average TCE of $14,600. We also estimate that EBITDA for the quarter was $26,900,000, and Adjusted EBITDA (for credit agreement purposes) was $28,900,000.

Our estimate is based on the following key assumptions: (I) It excludes the results of the company’s freight trading operations, (II) It excludes any new provision for bad debt with regards to Korea Line, or any write-down of vessel values, and (III) Two of the company’s vessels were dry-docked during the quarter, resulting in 22 total days off-hire.

As of December 31st, 2011, we estimate that book capitalization was $1.80 billion, including shareholders’ equity of $0.67 billion and total debt of $1.13. Based on the above its debt to total capitalization ratio was 62.8%.

According to our estimates, EGLE had approximately $23,000,000 cash on hand (including restricted cash), as of the end of the fourth quarter. EGLE also had access to an additional amount of $21,875,735 under its revolving credit facility. We must note that based on the amended credit agreement with its lenders, the company has to maintain a minimum liquidity of $500,000 per vessel or total of $22,500,000 (including any undrawn amount from its credit facility), from January 31st, 2012 until March 30th, 2012.

Eagle Bulk Shipping owns a modern diversified fleet of 45 SUPRAMAX dry cargo vessels with a total DWT capacity of approximately 2,450,000 MT, and an average age per vessel of 4.8 years as of December 31st, 2011. The company completed its new-building program during the fourth quarter and currently has no vessels on order.

Diana Shipping Inc. - Earnings Estimate For 2011 Q4

For the quarter ended December 31st, 2011, we estimate that Diana Shipping Inc. (NYSE: DSX) generated basic earnings per common share of $0.23 on net income of $18,600,000. We estimate that TCE Revenues were $54,500,000 and the average TCE rate was $25,400.

As of December 31st, 2011, we estimate that book capitalization was $1.58 billion including shareholders’ equity of $1.21 billion, and debt outstanding of $374 million. Based on the above its debt to capitalization ratio stood at 23.6%. Diana Shipping maintains a very strong cash position. As of December 31st, 2011, we estimate that DSX had $425 million cash on hand, well in excess of its debt outstanding.

During the first quarter of 2012, the company borrowed $16.125 million to partially finance the acquisition of M/V Leto (The vessel was delivered on January 16th). DSX has also entered into a loan agreement for an amount of $82.6 million, to finance its two new-building vessels (M/V Los Angeles was delivered on February 8th, whereas M/V Philadelphia is scheduled for delivery in the second quarter of 2012).

Following the delivery of M/V Leto & M/V Los Angeles, the company presently owns a modern diversified fleet of 26 dry cargo vessels (consisting of 16 PANAMAX size vessels, one POST-PANAMAX vessel, and 9 CAPE SIZE vessels), with a total DWT carrying capacity of approximately 2,900,000 MT, and an average age per vessel of 6.6 years.

In addition, Diana Shipping has a 14.5% interest in Diana Containerships (NASDAQ: DCIX), a publicly traded company specializing in container ships.

Based on today’s stock closing price of $9.13, we estimate that DSX has a market capitalization of $754 million and an enterprise value of $703 million.

Genco Shipping & Trading Limited - Earnings Estimate For 2011 Q4

For the quarter ended December 31st, 2011, we estimate that Genco Shipping & Trading Limited (NYSE: GNK) generated basic earnings per common share of $0.04 on net income attributable to GNK shareholders of $1,300,000. We estimate that the company generated net consolidated TCE Revenues of $94,900,000 and that the average TCE rate was $16,950 (including the vessels owned by the company’s subsidiary Baltic Trading Limited). We also estimate that EBITDA for the quarter was $58,800,000.

At the parent level and as of December 31st, 2011, we estimate that book capitalization was $2,730 million, including shareholders’ equity of $1,140 million, and total debt of $1,590 million. We also estimate that the debt to capitalization ratio was 58.2%.

We estimate that GNK had approximately $240 million cash on hand at the parent level as of the end of the fourth quarter. Based on the company’s closing price of $8.78 as of February 17th, 2012, we estimate that GNK has an enterprise value of $1,670 million.

As of December 31st, 2011, Genco Shipping & Trading owned a modern diversified fleet of 53 dry cargo vessels with a total DWT capacity of approximately 3,812,000 MT, and an average age per vessel of 6.62 years. GNK completed its new-building during the fourth quarter of 2011 with the delivery of the vessel GENCO SPIRIT.

In addition to the company’s own fleet, its subsidiary Baltic Trading Limited (NYSE: BALT) owns a fleet of nine dry cargo vessels with a total DWT capacity of approximately 672,000 MT, and an average age per vessel of 2.17 years as of December 31st, 2011. GNK has a 25% ownership interest in Baltic Trading Limited.

Safe Bulkers Inc. - Dividend Outlook For Year 2012

For the past two years it has been an annual spring ritual for Safe Bulkers Inc. (NYSE: SB) to tap the capital markets for fresh equity. In March 2010 and April 2011 the company raised $79.5 million and $42 million respectively in gross proceeds. Given the company’s existing new-building program (a total of 10 new-building vessels, six of which are scheduled for delivery during 2012), investors might be forgiven for anticipating a déjà-vu equity offering this spring, that will further dilute their equity holdings, and add pressure on the stock price.

Investors might also be concerned about the safety of the quarterly dividend of $0.15 per share, especially in anticipation of very weak spot freight conditions for the year.

To address such concerns we analyzed the company’s capital expenditure requirements, taking into consideration its fleet employment profile, debt repayment schedule, forecasts for the spot freight market during 2012, and the company’s current financial position.

Based on our analysis of the company’s fleet employment profile for year 2012, we believe that SB has the capacity to generate sufficient cash flow from operations to: make scheduled debt repayments, finance the equity portion of the $150.9 million capital expenditures for the year, and continue paying the regular quarterly cash dividend of $0.15 per share.

We based our analysis on the following two key assumptions:

With regards to the company’s fleet profile, we assumed that SB would generate an average TCE rate of $12,000 per day for the remaining open days, in line with current market forecasts for the year (Please note that we include in open days any index-based charter the company may enter into). SB has already fixed approximately 69% of its total available days for 2012, at an average TCE rate of $25,350, as of February 14th, 2012.

With regards to the company’s capital expenditure requirements, we assumed that SB would need to contribute a minimum of $60 million in cash equity or approximately 40% of the total amount required, in line with the company’s current debt to capitalization ratio (SB ended the year 2011 with a debt to capitalization ratio of 59.3%).

Based on the above assumptions, we estimate that SB would need to generate between $125 to $130 million in operating cash flow to meet all its capital requirements, a goal we believe is within reach, even after taking into account the present weak spot freight environment.

Given the company’s robust operating cash flow capacity, SB should be in a strong position to continue the regular payment of dividends for year 2012. The company would also keep dry most of its gunpowder of $83.5 million in cash, as of December 31st, 2011. This will enable Safe Bulkers to finance additional new-building orders as the opportunities arise, without having to first tap the equity markets.

Safe Bulkers Inc. - Earnings Estimate For 2011 Q4

For the quarter ended December 31st, 2011, we estimate that Safe Bulkers Inc. (NYSE: SB) generated net income of $23,350,000 or $0.33 earnings per share. We also estimate that adjusted net income for the quarter was $25,350,000 or $0.36 per share. (Our net income estimate was based on a net loss on derivatives of $2,000,000).

We estimate that the company’s net TCE Revenues for the quarter were $42,700,000 & the fleet average TCE was $26,500. We also estimate that during the fourth quarter of 2011, Safe Bulkers generated EBITDA of $31,150,000, and adjusted EBITDA of $33,150,000.

Based on the company’s operating performance, we forecast that the company will declare the regular quarterly dividend of $0.15 per share.

As of December 31st, 2011, Safe Bulkers was operating a modern diversified fleet of 18 bulk carriers (consisting of 4 PANAMAX, 3 KAMSARMAX, 9 POST-PANAMAX, & two CAPE size vessels), with a total DWT capacity of 1,715,600 MT, and an average age of 4.3 years.

In addition, the company has a remaining new-building program for 10 vessels with a total DWT capacity of 902,800 MT. Six of those vessels are scheduled for delivery during 2012.